I have written snippets on each of the decades of the 20th century and since “the past is prologue” I decided to look ahead at what the next several years might bring, particularly as we confront our first ever election in which the majority of the voters prefer neither candidate. Whoever is elected will find it difficult to govern. Our lives have become so polarized that compromise ceases to exist.
Biden’s solutions will likely be attempts to resolve issues by increased funding. The ‘maybe if we throw enough money at the problem, it will go away’ approach. Trump will react with anger and bluster. He will ridicule and demean those who disagree and increase racial, cultural, and economic divisiveness within the country. Neither of them is likely to resolve any of five major issues which grip our country and the world.
Ukraine fatigue – In 2019 Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a television personality, won his country’s Presidential election, defeating the Russian-backed candidate. Zelensky’s campaign was heavily financed with American money. Five years earlier, Russia and pro-Russian separatists had already taken control of Donetsk and Crimea. Now with a friendly government in power, NATO and Western powers hoped to move closer to Russia’s doorstep with missile installations and encouraging Ukraine to join the European Union. Russia acted, or overreacted, depending on your politics. Either way, Ukraine has become the victim in a proxy war. Russia has a reason to continue the war. We would not allow missiles in Cuba in the 1960’s, they will not allow them on their border in 2024. Eventually a peace will have to be signed guaranteeing Ukraine’s neutrality but until that happens death and destruction will rain down on what was once the breadbasket of Europe.
Radical Weather – As dry parts of the country are drenched and hillsides slide, fires grip vast forested areas, infrastructure is damaged, and oceans rise, states will become less financially able to help those in need. Costs will explode, insurance premiums will rise, and vast numbers of people will be dislocated. New financial pressures will strain people and governmental resources will exist.
Homelessness – When every major city deals with expanding homelessness, it becomes a national, rather than local, crisis. The number of homeless today exceeds ½ million. When we add nearly 1 million immigrants arriving each year, both legal and illegal, our society has failed in its obligation to deal with the issue in either a pragmatic or empathetic way.
Financial Collapse of Social Security – Economists have been warning us for years that the current funding of our social ‘net’ was not sustainable. By 2034, payments to retirees will need to be reduced by 25% because of people living longer and fewer workers funding the system. Medicare is in even more dire straits. Its Trust Fund is projected to be depleted in seven years To resolve the matter, Congress will either have to increase payroll taxes substantially or fund it by further increasing the national deficit. They have ignored this issue for more than forty years and neither political party has offered solutions to what lies just over the horizon.
Israel & Palestine – Israel’s stern reaction to the horrific attack last October has increased the level of antisemitism around the world and managed to accomplish something that eluded the followers of Mohammed for millennia, amiability between Sunnis and Shiites. Under the umbrella of American protection, Israel has thrived in hostile territory since 1948. Yet its current hubris now threatens global order with Iran close to producing a nuclear weapon and reestablishing relations with Saudi Arabia as two million Palestinians arrive in our homes every evening on television, wounded, and near starvation, as a belligerent Israeli government bellows and bombs. A solution will require enormous statesmanship and none have yet appeared. So, go ahead, pick a candidate. You pay your money, and you take your chances!